I am almost 100 percent certain this spike is completely because of the words “Heidi Montag Sex Tape” LOL

Is web buzz bad?

Previously, I’ve shared my thoughts on what makes a video viral. To recap, it’s a factor of incident or achievement and in rare instances of both coming together (Old Spice Guy, Susan Boyle) you have a perfect storm of viral potential.

Overnight, Susan Boyle went from crazy spinster cat lady to global icon with just one single performance of “I Dreamed a Dream” Our natural human inclination to judge-the-book-by-the-cover led us to be completely surprised by the power of her performance.

Our interest led to a glut of news pieces about her curiously odd and mostly pathetic life along with more evidence that she was as vocally talented as we had been led to believe from first glance.

Her debut album “I Dreamed a Dream” sold 3.7 million copies in the US alone–a number that would be lauded in any era but is truly boffo in a time where the retail music industry is fading faster than Mel Gibson’s chance for a B’nai B’rith award.

This year, we have the Old Spice Guy campaign. Shirtless hunk tries to compete against demographic mainstays like Axe by wowing us with a dazzling array of practical effects pulled off in a single mind-blowing take. With online views in the double-digit millions and internet chatter omnipresent, overnight the Old Spice Guy’ and his “I’m on a horse” button line became the memeiest of memes.

So then WHY ARE OLD SPICE SALES FALLING?

According to Brandweek, despite the obvious and overwhelming popularity of the ads, sales of their Red Zone After-Hours Body Wash are down 7 percent over the last 52 weeks ending in June (the Old Spice Guy Super Bowl ad aired Jan 31, 2010) .

Huh?

Marketing is always an uncertain calculated gamble to get your brand and/or message out to people. So then how could a brilliantly executed commercial campaign with unimpeachable widespread appeal fail so badly to do the one thing it is supposed to do… drive sales?

This is my hypothesis: It failed because you can’t polish a turd.

Say the words “Old Spice” to folks and there’s a very, very good chance the first thing they’ll think of is the smell of their father or grandfather. You can’t have “Old Spice” without first thinking “Old” and I don’t see how any fancy packaging or spokeshunk is going to fix that overall (and detrimental) brand association. Like hearing an old song that may instantly transport you back to a wildly vivid time from your youth, smell can take you to places your mind will never forget.

And Old Spice just stinks.

So no matter what Madison Avenue thinks, a Hollywood-style facade still can’t hide the fact that nobody’s home… and in this case a well-entrenched perception that the product is somehow inferior.

And this, the “facade-with-no-substance” issue is why viral campaigns not only fail but I believe they actually hurt sales. I understand that most of you who may even read this post are somewhat or mostly internet-savvy. The net is where you get your news, your entertainment and most of the source material that makes up what you chat with other people about online or in person. You are a being of the modern age. You are heavily influenced by what you see, read and hear on the net because it is your umbilical cord to the rest of the world.

You Twitter, you Facebook and you try to stay “connected”. And if you’re like me, you itch like a junkie if you haven’t checked your email for 20 minutes.

And though a good deal, or even most of the people you know are similar in their internet-ness, you have to remember that not everyone is as enamored with the glowing webbox as you are. And I believe that quite a lot of people who don’t give a crap about Tweeting or Facebook or “joining the coversation” are, for one, extremely suspect of the constant hype that that conversation generates.

Why? Because there are always “viral” campaigns going on. Always… and hardly ever do they work. I asked a very well-connected friend of mine to name 5 major viral campaigns that were successful on the net and also produced the desired effect at the cash register. I’d like to ask you to do the same.

Having trouble? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

My fear is that because we are constantly inundated by turbo-charged hype on the internet, a medium on which mostly everything to consume is free, we are more loathe to actually spend money on a product we see primarily web-hyped unless we feel:

a) It’s a steal.

b) It makes us feel like we’re part of something, i.e. we derive some sense of identity from it or view it as a lifestyle choice.

c) The product is of very high quality and sold within an acceptable price range (This of course goes hand in hand with (b) because of the willingness of some to pay a premium for design as a (possibly elitist) lifestyle choice (Apple, Porsche, I’m looking at you…)

But because of the overwhelming sense of huckster-ism on a platform where the democracy of ideas gives the same opportunity to the basement crackpot as it does to the seasoned and vetted journalist, I think even the net-savvy of us know the signal to noise ratio on the web is 99.9 percent noise.

In the same way that the mental real estate held by the words “Old Spice” conjure up (in the words of my buddy Mitch Kent) “Old Man Stink”, I think for a lot of people out there who aren’t as net-connected as you or I, the web holds the mental real estate held by snake oil salesman.

So, has the internet become the Boy who constantly cries Wolf?

But the things that do succeed, the rare few, are things of some substance. While I’d rather be beaten with a bag of oranges wrapped in a bath towel than listen to a Susan Boyle album you cannot deny she’s got some pipes and a compelling story.

Sure web buzz works on a smaller scale, especially within the microcosm of the internet and can definitely move the needle. But how often do you actually see primarily internet-driven campaigns move that needle for more than a blip especially in the world of major media… a.k.a. the big leagues?

Snakes on a Plane, huge internet buzz, lousy box office. Lost finale, huge internet buzz, very tepid Neilsen ratings… With all of these bloggers talking about it and people tweeting, why aren’t more folks attracted?

Because I think as much as we all would like to think the World Wide Web is the social backbone of modern society (and as much as it is for me and most of my friends), I just don’t think it’s as influential as we’ve led ourselves to believe. We, the most hyped-to audience have completely bought into the myth.

And just like the Old Spice Guy, the messenger may be cool but when you get down to it, the product is not as great as the hype would make you believe.

I’ve been involved in new media since 2005. In fact, I’ve been making a pretty good living thanks to New Media since 2006 and in that time I’ve seen the landscape change quite a bit. Back when I started it was all about audio and there wasn’t even an iTunes podcast directory. I can remember the day the video iPod was announced thinking “this is gonna change everything”… (and yes, hey you damn kids get off my lawn!)

And though I’ve seen quite a few folks brand themselves as “viral marketing” experts, what I’ve never seen is anyone tell me what makes that happen.

Then it kinda dawned on me as I was watching that whole Susan Boyle YouTube video phenomenon take off that there actually is a way to quantify what makes some videos go viral.

Viral videos fall under one of two categories: Incident or Acheivement.

Viral videos, by nature, are real time video documentation of “oh shit” moments, as in “Oh shit, did somone actually get that on video?” (Incident) or “Oh shit, that’s amazing” (Achievement)

“Numa Numa Guy”, “Star Wars Kid”, “Keyboard Cat”… Incident.

“Evolution of Dance”… Achievment.

What about super-smash viral videos like Susan Boyle on Britain’s Got Talent?

Achievement and Incident.

(and yes, “Two Girls, One Cup” is purely incident)

And so it dawned on me why you very rarely see scripted internet videos go viral and when you do, they are almost always videos carved out of mainstream TV shows with recognizable stars or indie-created projects where it’s obvious someone spent a few bucks on it to make it look as close to a mainstream product as possible.

(I’m not talking about successful video shows, I’m just talking about viral video clips)

“Dick in a Box” goes viral because part of the “Oh Shit” realization is that it’s Justin Timberlake making fun of himself. i.e. Achievement.

“Chocolate Rain” goes viral because it’s like watching some kind of car wreck that at the same time is mildly entertainng and thought provoking. i.e. Incident with a dash of Achievement. I can’t really willfully call it “Achievement” because nobody is talking about it anymore. That ship has sailed.

And of course any video where someone suffers an unexpected physical trauma falls under “Incident” (and is usualy quite funny as well.)

“Diet Coke and Mentos”… Achievment with a touch of Incident.

See where I’m going?

So, my dear friends, if you are trying to make your video go viral, you can market it all you want but unless it falls under one of these two categories, I think you’re gonna have an uphill battle on your hands.

This axiom (Which I’m now and forever dubbing “Nemcoff’s First Axiom of Virality”) even extends itself to photos as well, such as this recent “Photo Crasher Squirrel” pic (Incident).